Minnesota's Political Landscape
For Republicans during the Trump era, Minnesota has represented a challenging electoral target. The upcoming 2026 gubernatorial election presents what could be their breakthrough moment, though some strategists worry that former President Donald Trump's approach and the involvement of MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell might complicate their efforts.
Democratic Governor Tim Walz, seeking an unprecedented third term, faces scrutiny over his administration's oversight of state programs. However, Republican optimism about defeating him is tempered by internal concerns about campaign dynamics.
Republican Concerns and Divisions
"When the president comes in with a flamethrower and just throws that type of rhetoric, there's no oxygen, and there's no space for the Republican to offer suggestions and to be thoughtful in that space, because the rhetoric of the president just paints them into a corner," said Michael Brodkorb, a former deputy chair of the Minnesota GOP who backed the Democratic ticket in 2024.
Trump has intensified his criticism of Walz while making controversial comments about Minnesota's Somali community, using arrests of some immigrants in fraud cases to make broader generalizations. Some Republicans fear this approach could backfire in a state where Trump lost by 4 points in 2024.
The potential nomination of Lindell, a prominent promoter of 2020 election conspiracy theories, raises additional concerns. "We'd be cooked," said Dustin Grage, a Minnesota Republican strategist. "I'd be moving to Florida very shortly. We would lose pretty badly if Mike Lindell were to get the nomination."
Walz's Challenges and Republican Strategy
No Minnesota governor has ever won three consecutive terms, creating historical headwinds for Walz. His administration has faced multiple fraud investigations, including what the Justice Department called the "largest Covid-19 fraud scheme in the United States" involving $250 million from a child nutrition program.
House GOP Whip Tom Emmer, Minnesota's highest-profile Republican, expressed confidence about defeating Walz. "We should be able to beat Tim Walz with a dog," Emmer told POLITICO in an interview.
At a North Carolina rally, Trump praised Lindell, saying he "deserves to be the governor of Minnesota." This endorsement highlights divisions within Republican ranks about the best path to victory.
The Fraud Investigations
Multiple fraud cases have emerged during Walz's tenure, including charges against individuals accused of defrauding Minnesota housing and health benefits programs of millions. Prosecutors have expanded their inquiry to examine billions in flagged Medicaid billings across 14 public programs.
In response to these issues, Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party Chair Richard Carlbom defended Walz's record, stating the governor "heads into reelection with a record focused squarely on working people and kitchen-table issues."
"While the GOP clown-car primary remains consumed by infighting and loyalty tests for Donald Trump, Minnesota families are falling behind as Republicans unleash higher grocery prices, skyrocketing health care bills, and giant tax breaks for billionaires," Carlbom said.
Trump's Rhetorical Approach
Trump has increasingly linked Walz to government program abuses while using inflammatory language. In a Thanksgiving social media post, he called Walz "seriously retarded" and made disparaging comments about Somali refugees.
Emmer defended Trump's approach: "If he hadn't said it exactly the way it is, and if he hadn't been so out there direct, guess what? Nobody would have covered it."
Former Minnesota House Speaker Kurt Daudt, a Republican, noted that fraud investigations create vulnerability for Walz but expressed concern about how Trump's rhetoric might reframe the issues. "If you can lay out a case that, 'Well, you've been elected now for eight years, and you haven't fixed these problems' ... it kind of makes it an easier case to say, 'Maybe it's time for someone new,'" Daudt said.
National Attention and Electoral Implications
Walz's national profile increased significantly after serving as Kamala Harris's running mate in the 2024 presidential election, making him a prominent target for Republicans. However, Trump's intense focus on the race could prove problematic given Minnesota's political composition.
"Having Donald Trump being active in the race for a particular Republican may not be helpful, but it would be extremely helpful to raise the attention on Tim Walz and his record here in the state," Daudt observed.
Republicans worry that if Trump strongly backs Lindell, who collaborated with him to advance false 2020 election claims, it could simplify Walz's reelection strategy. "If [Lindell] is the candidate, that's what the election will be about," Daudt said. "It'll definitely be easier for Walz to make the election about Trump if Mike Lindell is the candidate. No question."
At the North Carolina rally, Trump highlighted Lindell's efforts to challenge the 2020 election results, telling supporters, "He was just a guy that said, 'This election was so crooked, it was so rigged.' He fought like hell."
Some Minnesota Republicans hope their party will nominate a more moderate candidate who can effectively highlight Walz's vulnerabilities without the complications of Trump's most controversial rhetoric or Lindell's association with election conspiracy theories.
