White Christmas Outlook for the United States
Forecasters indicate that a white Christmas will primarily occur in typical snowy locations across the upper Midwest, mountain West, upstate New York, and northern New England. Meanwhile, a thaw is diminishing snow accumulation in other parts of the Midwest and Northeast.
Defining a White Christmas
According to meteorologists, a "white Christmas" requires at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. It is the snow cover, not falling snow, that matters. Therefore, if snow falls later in the day without morning accumulation, it does not qualify as a white Christmas.
Current Forecast Details
The latest projections show areas with the highest probability of snow cover in dark teal contours, while lighter teal regions have some chance but no certainty. Gray areas are unlikely to see a white Christmas this year. Forecasts may adjust as Christmas approaches, but the overall pattern is expected to hold.
This year's holiday snow cover could be less extensive than last year, which was already below average. NOAA reported only 26% of the country had snow on the ground during the previous Christmas.
Recent Weather Patterns
The current outlook contrasts with recent conditions. Parts of the mid-Atlantic and I-95 corridor experienced their first seasonal snow last weekend. Since Thanksgiving, a snowy stretch has affected the Midwest from Iowa to the Great Lakes. For instance, Springfield, Illinois, recorded its snowiest start to winter since 1893, with nearly a full season's snowfall by mid-December. Chicago's O'Hare Airport has seen almost as much snow as all of last season.
Additionally, several Midwest and East cities, including Green Bay, Wisconsin, Cleveland, and Scranton, Pennsylvania, had one of the top 10 coldest first halves of December on record.
Warming Trends Impact
A general warming trend across much of the country is expected to persist through Christmas week, affecting even recently cold, snow-covered areas in the Midwest. From Christmas through New Year's Eve, the entire Lower 48 states are projected to be near or above average temperatures. While cold fronts may occur, they are likely confined to northern regions and brief compared to recent cold snaps. This warming is a key factor in the anticipated reduction of snow cover in the Midwest and Northeast.
Snowfall Expectations
Given the warmer pattern, significant snow is not expected in the eastern two-thirds of the nation, except near the Canadian border and Great Lakes snowbelts. However, there is positive news for snow enthusiasts: more mountain snow is forecast in the West through Christmas, particularly in the Cascades, Sierra, and northern Rockies, where recent warmth and rain have reduced snowpack. In the Northeast, chances of a white Christmas improved slightly on Saturday, especially in higher elevations of eastern New York and New England.
